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Relationship of Stock Market Fluctuations to the Lunar Cycle – A Unique Study by Frank J. Guarino
Discover the Astrological Influence on Market Behavior
In a world dominated by technical indicators and economic fundamentals, few dare to explore the cosmic connection between lunar cycles and market trends. But in his groundbreaking 1975 MBA thesis, Frank J. Guarino did just that. Titled “Relationship of Stock Market Fluctuations to the Lunar Cycle”, this 74-page study examines the possible correlation between phases of the moon and stock market behavior, offering a bold and interdisciplinary perspective that blends astrology, psychology, and financial analysis.
Originally presented at Pace University and later published by the American Federation of Astrologers, Guarino’s work remains a cornerstone in the field of financial astrology—and a must-read for traders seeking a broader understanding of market dynamics.
About the Author and the Research
Frank J. Guarino was among the earliest scholars to systematically explore how celestial influences—specifically the moon—might impact investor sentiment and market activity. His thesis emerged at a time when traditional financial models were the norm, offering a refreshing deviation from purely economic-based analysis.
Guarino challenged these norms by:
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Applying statistical models to correlate stock indices with lunar phases
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Collecting decades of historical market data
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Factoring in psychological and behavioral patterns of investors
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Incorporating qualitative insights through trader surveys
Key Findings: How the Moon May Move the Markets
Guarino’s data-driven investigation revealed noteworthy patterns tied to lunar cycles:
🌕 Full Moons: Volatility and Emotional Decision-Making
The thesis found that full moons often coincided with increased trading volume and higher volatility. This period was linked to elevated stress and reactive trading behavior, which may lead to irrational decision-making.
🌑 New Moons: Calm, Consolidation, and Strategic Moves
In contrast, new moons were associated with periods of market calm, reduced volatility, and more strategic trading behavior. Investors appeared more measured in their decisions during this lunar phase.
Practical Implications for Traders and Investors
Whether you’re a discretionary trader or a long-term investor, understanding these patterns can enhance your approach:
📈 Enhance Market Forecasting
Using lunar phases as an auxiliary timing tool may help anticipate shifts in market sentiment and volatility—especially when combined with traditional indicators.
📉 Improve Risk Management
If full moons are linked with increased volatility, traders can apply tighter risk controls or avoid high-leverage trades during these windows.
📊 Strategic Portfolio Adjustments
Long-term investors might use lunar insights to fine-tune entry/exit timing, or rebalance portfolios when sentiment is more stable.
A Psychological Lens: Emotions and Lunar Influence
Guarino didn’t stop at technical correlations. He also investigated how lunar cycles may influence the psychological states of market participants.
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Full Moon → Heightened anxiety, impulsiveness, and herd behavior
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New Moon → Rational thinking, longer-term planning, and patience
These findings resonate with behavioral finance and align with studies showing that investor sentiment can be swayed by emotional or environmental factors—including the lunar cycle.
Validating the Approach: Environmental and Economic Filters
To ensure the credibility of the correlations, Guarino carefully filtered out other variables:
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Interest rates and GDP as macroeconomic controls
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Seasonal market trends
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Unpredictable events like natural disasters
This comprehensive framework ensures that lunar patterns were not just coincidental, but statistically supported, even when viewed in context with broader market forces.
Reception and Impact in Financial Circles
Guarino’s thesis sparked both praise and skepticism.
👍 Praised For:
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Innovative methodology merging astrology with finance
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Academic rigor supported by extensive data and references
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Opening the door to new models in financial psychology
👎 Criticized For:
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Lack of widespread scientific validation in mainstream finance
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Challenges in reproducibility due to the unique scope of the study
Yet today, his work remains highly regarded in niche financial astrology circles and continues to influence alternative market theorists and researchers.
Should You Consider Lunar Cycles in Your Trading Strategy?
While lunar analysis should not replace traditional methods, it can serve as a valuable secondary tool. Traders and investors who value psychology, timing, and behavioral triggers may find unique advantages in aligning with lunar rhythms.
Key takeaway:
Don’t trade by moonlight—but don’t ignore the moonlight either.
Where to Learn More
Interested in learning how astrological and psychological cycles can complement your trading strategy?
✅ Explore our curated Financial Astrology Courses
✅ Learn how emotion, timing, and environmental factors influence your performance
✅ Dive deeper into unconventional trading models that go beyond charts
📚 Frank Guarino’s thesis is also available through the American Federation of Astrologers.
Conclusion: A Timeless Exploration of Cosmic Correlation
Frank J. Guarino’s “Relationship of Stock Market Fluctuations to the Lunar Cycle” is not just a relic of 1970s academia—it’s a thought-provoking invitation to rethink what drives the markets. In an age where algorithms dominate and data overload is common, returning to human emotion, behavioral science, and even celestial cycles can offer a refreshing and insightful edge.
Whether you’re skeptical or curious, one thing is certain: the moon may not control the market, but it just might influence those who do.
